ATOC 6700 Forecasting Contest

The ATOC 6700 weather forecasting contest will be conducted once per week. Each student will make a forecast for Denver International Airport and for O’hare Airport in Chicago, IL for two 24 hour periods, with the forecast period starting at midnight (local time - LT) on Wednesday. The day 1 forecast will be for the time period 12:00AM LT Wednesday through 11:59PM LT Wednesday. The day 2 forecast will be for the time period 12:00AM LT Thursday through 11:59PM LT Thursday.

For each forecast period the minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and a precipitation category are to be forecast. Temperatures will be forecast to the nearest whole degree Fahrenheit. Precipitation (liquid water equivalent) categories are:

Cat. 0 -- no precipitation or trace
Cat. 1 -- trace - 0.05", inclusive
Cat. 2 -- 0.06-0.24", inclusive
Cat. 3 -- 0.25-0.49", inclusive
Cat. 4 -- 0.50-0.99", inclusive
Cat. 5 -- >=1.00"

The forecasts must be submitted no later than 8PM MT on Tuesday. The forecasts are submitted by following the Forecast Entry link on the class web page.

Forecasts will be scored based on the following. One error point is accumulated for each degree Fahrenheit that the forecast temperatures deviate from the NWS climate data minimum or maximum daily temperature. Four error points are accumulated for each precipitation category that the forecast precipitation deviates from the NWS climate data daily liquid equivalent precipitation amount. In the event that a trace of precipitation verifies both category 0 and 1 are accepted as correct forecasts. NWS daily climate data at Denver International Airport (KDEN) and Chicago O'hare Airport (KORD) will be used to verify the forecasts. Weekly forecasting contest results will be posted for each city after the forecasts are verified.

All forecasters who do not submit a forecast by the 8:00 p.m. MT deadline will receive a persistence forecast. Forecasters that know they will miss a forecast period can request that a standardized forecast (NWS grid, NAM MOS, GFS MOS, etc.) be submitted for them by e-mailing the course instructor (john.cassano@colorado.edu) prior to the forecast deadline. Students enrolled in ATOC 6700 will be allowed to miss a maximum of 1 forecast period during the semester before receiving a reduced grade for the class.